The 2027 Rivers state governorship election is expected to be held in the first quarter of 2027, to elect the governor of the oil-rich state.

Expectedly, the election would be concurrent with voting to the Rivers state house of assembly as well as several other gubernatorial elections and polls to all other state houses of assembly.

Legit.ng reports that party primaries will be held in 2026.

Rivers electoral system

The governor of Rivers state is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive the plurality of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of state and local government areas. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of local government areas.

Politically, the 2023 elections were a continuation of the state Peoples Democratic Party (PDP's) control of the state, with Siminalayi Fubara winning, thanks to the strong backing of his godfather and predecessor, Nyesom Wike. Wike handpicked Fubara to succeed him as Rivers governor.

Fubara would, meanwhile, later become entangled in a political rift with Wike, a development that caused disturbing acts of violence in the state.

In an unexpected turn, Governor Fubara outmanoeuvred his estranged boss in the battle for control of the top south-south state.

Amid some 'obstacles', here are three reasons Fubara may lose the second-term bid.

1. Fubara's feud with Wike

President Bola Tinubu is widely considered as Nigeria's most influential politician alive. Many observers say, from the southern region, Wike comes next.

Fubara and Wike, minister of the federal capital territory (FCT); have been at loggerheads over control of the political structure of the state. The conflict has led to a polarisation of the Rivers state assembly and multiple court orders.

There are fears in some quarters that without Wike's support in 2027, Fubara may lose.

3 months into Fubara's tenure,Wike began exerting pressure on him,leading to ongoing efforts to remove him from office.
Despite his previous boasting, Wike now appears to be biding his time until 2027, It can be argued that Fubara has marginalized Wike's influence in Rivers State pic.twitter.com/zBNS0d42cz

— Hon. Rilwan (@rilwan_ola01) September 2, 2024

"All they want is the control of Rivers State Resources and I said 'no' Rivers Resources is for Rivers people"

-Governor Fubara pic.twitter.com/xErzzH6iAs

— CHUKS 🍥 (@ChuksEricE) November 12, 2024

Fubara has now learnt that you earn your own freedom yourself.

— oseni rufai (@ruffydfire) May 14, 2024

2) Controversy over Fubara's party membership

Some politicians in Rivers alleged that Governor Fubara no longer belongs to any political party, and will thus not get a party to nominate him in 2027 for any political office.

According to the Rivers state chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC) backed by the national working committee (NWC) of the party, Governor Fubara may not return as governor of the state. The APC said at the moment, he does not belong to any political party in the country.

During the last Rivers state local government (LG) elections, Fubara supported the Action Peoples Party (APP), the party which went on to clear 22 out of 23 local government areas (LGAs).

3) Ogoni, Oyigbo people's quests for governor's seat

The Ogoni and Oyigbo Peoples Assembly, a multi-political convergence of five LGAs within the Rivers south-east senatorial district, met in September 2024.

Following the meeting, they maintained that the senatorial district’s upland is due for a governor and should produce the next governor of Rivers state come 2027.

Governor Fubara is from Opobo, comparatively disadvantaged in quite a lot of areas.