An asset management firm, Meristem Securities, has stated that the Central Bank of Nigeria's Monetary Policy Committee could maintain a hold position for the majority of this year.

The MPR increased from 18.75 percent in January 2024 to 27.50% in November 2024, a total rise of 8.75%.

Meristem Securities recently published its 2025 full year outlook, which included this. As the apex bank continued to take a hawkish stance to combat inflation, the benchmark rate was raised by more than 800 basis points.

Experts at Meristem Securities predicted, “Looking ahead, we see the potential for a less aggressive monetary policy stance, particularly as the monetary authority has hinted at its intention to evaluate the impact of prior policy measures.

"This outlook is further supported by our expectation of modest moderation in inflation during the year.

“Given the risk that premature easing could reverse the progress made in 2024 and exacerbate inflationary pressures, we expect the MPC to maintain a HOLD stance for most of 2025.

"A shift to a more dovish position may occur in the final quarter of the year. While unlikely, we cannot entirely rule out the possibility of an additional 100 bps hike in the MPR during the first quarter of 2025.”

Market observers had expected the CBN to raise rates in the previous year, particularly given the rising pace of inflation.

At the current FirstBank Economic Outlook, economist Biodun Adedipe also predicted that MPR will slightly decline in Q1 2025, with the bank lending rate continuing to be in the double digits and following MPR revisions.