After weeks of declining fuel prices, the pump price of PMS recently started climbing up again after the naira-for-crude discussions stalled between the Dangote Refinery and the federal government.

Pump prices are now above N900 again, with the product selling for as high as N970 to N990 per litre in several states outside Lagos state.

However, a group has predicted a crash in fuel prices and naira appreciation in the foreign exchange market.

The National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies (NIPSS) says that its analysis shows that fuel prices will crash before the end of 2025.

The group explained that the production ongoing at the Dangote Refinery, as well as the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) refinery, which has been operating for over 110 days, will influence the pump prices to come down.

Dangote Refinery, others to crash fuel prices

Director-General of NIPSS, Ayo Omotayo, noted that as more refineries come onstream, the supply of petroleum products will flood the market, causing a crash in prices.

Speaking on a Channels TV interview on the Morning Brief, on Tuesday Morning, Omotayo explained that market forces will crash fuel prices.

He said;

“We are buying fuel a little bit more expensive now, but as we predict at the National Institute that if we continue with what we are currently doing, fuel price will come down. We’re looking at it coming down to as low as ₦750 before the end of the year.”

NIPSS predicts N1,300/$ in 2025

The NIPSS boss noted too that the increased activities from the refineries will also affect the exchange rate as Nigeria gradually grows to become a net exporter.

Omotayo predicted that the naira would appreciate to N1,300 before the end of 2025, and soon enough, Nigerians would be compensated for the sacrifices they have had to make.

He commended President Bola Tinubu for immediately implementing the fuel subsidy removal upon assuming office, and taking the action that past governments were not bold enough to do.

Omotayo stated;

“We were on the verge of collapse with subsidies. Even before President BAT came into the office, we researched it and we knew that it was not sustainable. Other governments knew this but were not courageous enough to remove the subsidy.

"The pill of subsidy removal is a bitter one no doubt. There is a need to adjust. We have been on the feeding bottle for 48 hours, and of course, it will be a challenge when you ask someone who has been on the feeding bottle for 48 years to go and start looking for food.”

Fuel prices hit N1,000/litre in Ilorin

In related news, fuel prices have hit N1,000 in Ilorin, worsening the economic hardship in the town and pushing transportation fares up.

A survey by Legit.ng revealed that several independent marketers have adjusted their pump prices between N950 and N1,000 per litre.

Independent marketers blame the price surge on the collapse of the naira-for-crude agreement between NNPC and Dangote Refinery.