The outlook for Nigeria’s crude oil output remains gloomy at 1.4 million barrels per day (mbpd) in the second half of 2024, according to industry data.

The output forecast is below the 1.8mbpd quota given to Nigeria by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), as well as the 1.7mbpd stated as 2024 budget benchmark by the Federal Government.

This shows that there is an oil revenue fall of about one trillion naira against the 2024 budgetary expectations.

The data obtained from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) June 2024 report – Crude Oil and Condensate Production – showed that on month-on-month, Nigeria's oil output, excluding Condensate dropped by 2.3 per cent to 1.25 million bpd in June 2024, from 1.28 million bpd in April 2024.

According to the data, Nigeria's oil output continued its downward trend from January 2024 when it recorded 1.6 million bpd, before falling to 1.5 million bpd, 1.4 million bpd and 1.3 million bpd in February, March and April 2024, respectively.

OPEC further revealed that Nigeria’s oil output, excluding Condensate, remained flat at 1.2 million bpd in May 2024 and 1.2 million bpd, in April 2024.

In its June 2024 Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), obtained by Financial Vanguard, OPEC noted that the data were based on information obtained from direct or official sources.

The latest Monthly Oil Market Report of the OPEC showed that the nation’s rig count, a major indicator of upstream activities, declined to 16 in May 2024, from 19 in April 2024.

In a telephone interview, an energy expert, Dr. Bala Zakka, stated: “The outlook does not look bright in the short and medium term because the facts are there. For instance, the rig count, an index of measuring activities have not been rising, but falling.

“Every day, my colleagues and I in Nigeria and other parts of the world discuss this and other issues. The conclusion we have does not point towards the possible high oil output in the second half of 2024.”

Another energy analyst, who pleaded anonymity said: “Nigeria might not still be able to meet its output targets in the remaining part of the year.

"This would likely impact negatively on the budget.”