The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update Report for July 2024, has stated that global growth is projected to remain unchanged at 3.2 per cent in 2024 and 3.3 per cent in 2025.
The report titled: “The Global Economy in a Sticky Spot” was released on Tuesday, July 16, 2024.
According to the report, among advanced economies, growth was expected to converge over the coming quarters, like in the United States, projected growth was revised downward to 2.6 per cent in 2024.
It read: “This is 0.1 percentage point lower than what was projected in April, reflecting the slower-than-expected start to the year.
“Growth is expected to slow to 1.9 per cent in 2025 as the labour market cools and consumption moderates, with fiscal policy starting to tighten gradually.
“This is driven by stronger momentum in services and higher-than-expected net exports in the first half of the year."
The report further disclosed that in emerging markets and developing economies, the forecast for growth was revised upward; the projected increase was powered by stronger activity in Asia, particularly China and India.
It added: “For China, the growth forecast is revised upward to five per cent in 2024, primarily on account of a rebound in private consumption and strong exports in the first quarter.
“The forecast for growth in India has also been revised upward, to 7.0 per cent, this year.”
For Latin America and the Caribbean, the report indicated that growth had been revised downward for 2024 in Brazil, showing the near-term impact of flooding, and in Mexico, due to moderation in demand.
“However, growth has been revised upwards in 2025 for Brazil to reflect reconstruction following the floods and supportive structural factors, for example, acceleration in hydrocarbon production.”
For Middle East and Central Asia, oil production and regional conflicts continued to weigh on prospects.
It showed the growth forecast for 2024 in Saudi Arabia had been revised downward by 0.9 percentage points; the adjustment reflects mainly the extension of oil production cuts.
The report said for Sub-Saharan Africa, the forecast for growth was revised downward.
“This is mainly as a result of a 0.2 percentage point downward
revision to the growth outlook in Nigeria amid weaker than expected activity in the first quarter of 2023.”
It said global inflation would continue to decline, but it was expected to remain higher in emerging markets and developing economies and to drop more slowly than in advanced economies.
“However, partly thanks to falling energy prices, inflation is already close to pre-pandemic levels for the median emerging market and developing economy.”