The future of the Nigerian currency is said to be based on the Federal Government (FG) addressing its rising debt profile, boosting oil production, and leveraging strategic asset sales.

The Chief Executive Officer of The CFG Advisory, Tilewa Adebajo, said this in his 2025 economic forecast titled, ‘From Reform Fatigue Quagmire to Sustainable Growth".

According to him, the naira exchange rate against the dollar could be sub-1000/$ or north of 2000/$, and it depends on FG's fiscal discipline and policy implementation.

Adebajo added that Nigeria's ambitious 18-month economic reform programme, aimed at guiding the nation toward sustainable growth, has left the country precariously poised between progress and peril.

"Due to poor implementation and a misaligned sequence of policy priorities, the programme has faltered in achieving its lofty objectives, leaving the economy stuck in stagflation and households grappling with diminished purchasing power," he said.

Adebajo also highlighted that the naira’s devaluation from about N450 to as high as N1,700 per US dollar, along with the removal of fuel subsidies, has resulted in really high inflation, eroding household purchasing power and driving up interest rates for businesses.

He also described the current state as a “quagmire of reform fatigue,” where “the government has put the cart before the horse,” jeopardising any prospects of immediate recovery.

The CEO said: "Adding to the challenges, Nigeria’s debt burden has exceeded $100 billion, with debt servicing costs surging from N8 trillion in 2024 to an astounding N16.3 trillion in the proposed 2025 budget.

“Debt servicing now surpasses the combined budgets allocated for defense, security, infrastructure, education, and health,” underscoring the severity of the situation.

"The irony is unmistakable: funds saved from the removal of fuel subsidies are being redirected to debt servicing instead of being invested in critical capital projects that could drive economic growth.

“The loss of $300 billion in GDP over eight years is a testament to the prolonged policy inconsistency and the failure to implement a coordinated economic strategy."

he proposed bold measures to address these challenges, which includes restructuring Nigeria’s capital base by selling joint venture oil assets, which could generate $30–$50 billion.

He stated that such a move would reduce debt, stabilize the foreign exchange market, and improve the naira’s value.

He also stressed the importance for a coordinated policy framework which focuses on inflation control, lower borrowing costs, and an investment-friendly environment to spur growth.