The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has projected that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery's operations could help in lowering petrol prices in Nigeria.

OPEC shared the optimism in its February 2025 monthly oil market report.

OPEC also expects that the Dangote Refinery's full-scale operations will further support economic stability through petroleum product supply and prices.

Dangote price impact

Since commencing operations in January 2024, the refinery has already made an impact.

First, it slashed diesel prices from N1,700 to below 1,000 per litre and recently reduced the ex-depot price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) from N950 to N890 per litre.

While its partnered marketer, MRS Nigeria, is selling at N925 per litre.

These moves have been welcomed as crucial steps towards ending fuel scarcity and reducing dependency on imported petroleum products.

Dangote refinery shares good news Punch reports that OPEC believes that when the Dangote refinery is producing at full capacity, there will be more affordable fuel for Nigerians to buy.

However, this optimistic outlook is faced with the challenge of securing adequate crude oil supply from the Federal Government to meet its production targets.

Davakumar Edwin, Vice President of the Dangote Group, recently shared good news that the refinery, which is currently operating at 550,000 barrels per day, is now expected to reach its full capacity by March 2025.

His words: "Running at 85% capacity and that "we can go 100% in 30 days."

This ramp-up in production aligns with OPEC's assessment that increased output from the Dangote Refinery could stabilise the supply of petroleum products in Nigeria.

More insights from OPEC on Nigeria

OPEC, in its report, reiterated that the oil sector in Nigeria's economy, despite the growing influence of the non-oil sector.

It said that economic growth, helped by sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing, recorded a robust 3.5% year-on-year increase in the third quarter of 2024.

The report also noted expectations of sustained economic stability into the fourth quarter, citing easing price pressures and potential adjustments in monetary policy.