As Nigeria approaches the 2027 presidential election, tensions between President Bola Tinubu and influential northern political figures are becoming increasingly evident. Several factors contribute to this growing discontent, suggesting a potential shift in political alliances. Here are six key reasons behind this development:​

1. Perceived Marginalization in Federal Appointments
Northern leaders have expressed concerns over what they perceive as disproportionate representation in key federal appointments. Positions such as the Petroleum Minister, Finance Minister, and Chief Justice of Nigeria are reportedly held predominantly by individuals from the Yoruba ethnic group. This concentration has led to feelings of exclusion among northern political elites, who believe their support during the 2023 elections has not been adequately reciprocated. Eyes Of Lagos reports,

2. Economic Policies Impacting the North Adversely
President Tinubu’s economic reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies and proposed tax changes, have been met with criticism in the North. These policies have led to increased living costs, disproportionately affecting the economically vulnerable northern population. The Northern Elders Forum has voiced regret over supporting Tinubu, citing that the “Renewed Hope” promised has turned into widespread hopelessness.

3. Strategic Political Realignments
Recent visits by prominent northern politicians to former President Muhammadu Buhari in Daura have raised eyebrows. While officially described as Eid homages, analysts like Senator Shehu Sani suggest these meetings are strategic moves to build a northern alliance aimed at challenging Tinubu’s re-election bid. Such realignments indicate a concerted effort to consolidate northern political power ahead of 2027.

4. Youth Discontent and Rising Unrest
The northern region has witnessed increasing youth unrest, fueled by economic hardship and perceived governmental neglect. Protests inspired by events in other African nations have taken root in northern Nigeria, highlighting the growing dissatisfaction among young people. This demographic shift poses a challenge to Tinubu’s administration, as the youth constitute a significant portion of the electorate. ​
5. Rejection of Calls for Northern Political Patience
Statements by figures like APC National Chairman Abdullahi Ganduje, urging the North to wait until 2031 before seeking the presidency again, have been met with resistance. Northern leaders argue that such calls are attempts to suppress legitimate political aspirations and are indicative of a broader strategy to sideline northern interests. ​

6. Concerns Over Centralization of Power

Decisions such as relocating key federal institutions from Abuja to Lagos have been perceived by northern leaders as efforts to centralize power in the South-West. This has exacerbated feelings of marginalization and fueled narratives that the Tinubu administration prioritizes regional interests over national unity. ​

The convergence of these factors suggests a growing rift between President Tinubu and northern political elites. As the 2027 elections approach, the dynamics within Nigeria’s political landscape may undergo significant shifts, influenced by regional sentiments and strategic alliances.​